CNNMoney’s Jefferies believes the stock will be up more than 5% this year, but that’s in a bear market.
Jefferies, a longtime analyst at Morgan Stanley, said Facebook is still trading at about $20 per share and could fall to around $20 this year.
He expects Facebook to break above $20 next year.
The stock has surged more than 300% over the past year.
But Jefferies said he’s concerned Facebook will continue to sell shares, which could cause the stock to drop further.
“Facebook is probably still in a long-term bear market, and I don’t think there’s a lot of upside to that,” he said.
Facebook stock is up about 2.5% this week, but Jefferies expects it to drop even further in the next few months.
If Facebook were to hit a bottom, Jefferies thinks it would likely cause the company to break out of its current bear market phase and begin to increase its earnings.
Facebook is currently trading at $19.80, which Jefferies says is a “very healthy price.”